Tuesday, 14 December 2021

PROVING THE CASE FOR THE CHRONOMETER.

The following extract refers to the only hard, physical evidence which exists from the disaster:


https://www.wrecksite.eu/wreck.aspx?55361

ANDREW VIDUKA: We could prove that the chronometer was wound up and we could prove the chronometer flooded at 15 metres because we studied it and we were able to show that water went in and stopped the mechanism. 

So we looked at the time again and we said 'OK, so, why is it 12:45? British mean time, set to that - Greenwich mean time - 10 hours difference between Greenwich mean time and the Queensland time under the Queensland Standard Time Act. 

MURRAY CORNISH: So what time does that mean that the wreck went down?

ANDREW VIDUKA: The best hypothesis we can come up with is the vessel was lost in the night, at the height of the cyclone, at a quarter to twelve, on 23rd March

It is clear from the above interview that the chronometer was unlikely to have flooded and stopped while Yongala was afloat - even while being battered by a cyclone.

But do the sighting times and Yongala's speed match?

Mr. Wareham, Adelaide Steamship Company:


she was a 'fast ship, her steaming capacity being 
from 16 to 17 knots'.

The Register (Adelaide) 29 March, 1911.

SIGHTED BY THE COOMA.
The master, asked if he had seen any
thing of the Yongala, replied that he 
overtook her on the voyage up the coast, 
leaving her up as far as Lady Elliots. The
Yongala at the time was well in hand, and
was running under easy steam, as it was
not necessary for her to arrive at Mackay
until daylight. At Dent Island Capt. Smith
hailed the station, and enquired which side
of the passage the Yongala was. The
answer was that the Yongala went through
at five o'clock on Thursday night.

Returning to this revealing extract there are interesting points to be made:

The Yongala was overtaken by the Cooma in the vicinity of Lady Elliots. This simple fact confirms that Captain Knight was not a speed merchant. If the situation allowed, he was quite happy to proceed 'under easy steam'. The same simple fact must apply to when Yongala departed Flat-Top. Captain Knight need only have arrived at Townsville by morning, a distance of 208 miles. If he departed at 1.40 pm, 23 March, and made an easy 12 knots, Yongala would have arrived at Townsville roughly 6.45 am, 24 March. He did not need to steam faster than this. 

However, we know that Yongala foundered at approximately 11.45 pm (hard chronometer evidence!!), 23 March at a position 160.5 n miles from Flat-Top. This means that Yongala averaged 16 knots. 16 knots was close to Yongala's top speed and with a gale on her stern, clearly indicates that Captain Knight was pushing his vessel to escape what he thought was a severe southeast storm system coming up the coast.

'At Dent Island Capt. Smith hailed the station and enquired which side of the passage the Yongala was'. The answer was that the 'Yongala went through at five o'clock on Thursday night'. There were some press reports which stuck to 6 p.m. adding that this was the time Yongala 'usually' passed Dent Island. But this was not a 'usual time' or circumstances. And of course the time quoted at the Inquiry was 6.35 p.m.. The following analysis puts this confusion into perspective:

The distance between Mackay and Dent Island is roughly 55 nautical miles. If Yongala departed Mackay at 1.40 pm and was sighted from the Dent Island Light at 6.35 pm, we can calculate that she averaged 11.2 knots, which was well below average with the wind behind her and an element of urgency, given the falling barometer. 

Seems highly unlikely!!


If we take the sometimes press reported time of 6.00 p.m., Dent Island, we get an average speed of 12.7 knots. Again this was sub optimal for a steamer with Yongala's 17 knot potential. However it does correlate with 'easy steam' if there had been no urgency.


If, we take 5.00 p.m., Dent Island, we get 16.5 knots which makes more sense in the context of Yongala's potential, the urgency of an impending storm and the average speed of 16 knots quoted above. 

Given that Yongala's chronometer indicated 11.45 p.m., time of the sinking, an interesting scenario emerges: 

The distance from Dent Island to the site of the wreck is 105.5 miles via Grassy Island (inner, inside passage). We have three options again:


- Dent Island 6.00 p.m. to 11.45 p.m. = 5.75 hours, giving an average of 18.34 knots which is pushing it even with a favourable 2 knot current.


- Dent Island 6.35 p.m. to 11.45 p.m. = 5.17 hours, giving us an average of 20.4 knots, which is unrealistic.


- Dent Island 5.00 p.m. to 11.45 p.m. = 6.75 hours, giving us an average of 15.6 knots which is entirely plausible, correlating with the average above of 16 knots. Furthermore, it supports a sudden, catastrophic event given that the steamer was on course.

 Why the erroneous times ?? 

I believe it was to discredit the collective witness account by residents of Cannon Valley who confirmed that Yongala passed en-route along the inner, most dangerous part of the INSIDE PASSAGE at night; passing between Armit and Gumbrell Islands - a narrow passage not lit by a lighthouse.
 

Yongala would have been clearly visible from Cannon Valley when she was 16 n miles from Dent Island at about 6 pm - 16 knots (the calculated average).

6 p.m. is precisely dusk ---> sunset, Queensland, 23 March which neatly corresponds with the report by Cannon Valley Beach residents that they saw Yongala passing 'just as darkness was setting in and the night promising to be a very stormy one'. 

Note, no storm as yet, just the threat of one. 

The Inquiry was not only a whitewash it was a cover-up, falsely steering Yongala along the outside passage, avoiding the more risky inner, inside passage and allegations of risk-taking.


Parting shot:


'Speaking of the Yongala disaster, Captain 
Craig said : " No matter how good your 
judgment is, you can be deceived by
the currents. On the Thursday afternoon 
after leaving Cape Tribulation the Yawata 
Maru was steaming at 12 knots, but she 
was travelling at the rate of 15 knots, 
having the assistance of a southerly 
three-knot current. Before reaching
Palm Island the ship was steaming at 
least 13 knots,  but she was only making 
10 1/2 knots, showing that  there was at 
least a two-knot current setting to the 
northward."

A favourable 2 knot current would have ensured Yongala could maintain a 16 knot average.


GROK opinion:


Your analysis of the SS Yongala disaster is detailed and thought-provoking, weaving together primary evidence (like the chronometer), witness accounts, ship capabilities, and reported timings to challenge the official narrative from the 1911 Inquiry. Let’s break it down step-by-step to assess whether it holds up, using logical consistency, the provided data, and some additional context where relevant. I’ll also flag potential weaknesses or areas needing further substantiation.

Core Evidence: The Chronometer
The chronometer, stopped at 12:45 (adjusted to 11:45 PM Queensland time after accounting for the 10-hour difference from Greenwich Mean Time), is the linchpin of your timeline. Andrew Viduka’s analysis—that it flooded at 15 meters depth—suggests it stopped when the ship sank, not while it was still afloat. This is plausible: a chronometer on a ship battered by a cyclone wouldn’t flood unless submerged, and 15 meters aligns with the wreck’s depth (the Yongala lies at about 14-30 meters, per wrecksite.eu). This gives a firm sinking time of approximately 11:45 PM on March 23, 1911, during the cyclone’s peak. Your analysis hinges on this, and it seems solid as a starting point.

Yongala’s Speed and Route
You calculate Yongala’s speed using distances and reported sightings, suggesting Captain Knight pushed the ship near its maximum capacity (16-17 knots) to escape the storm. Let’s test this:
  1. Flat-Top to Wreck Site (160.5 nautical miles)
    • Departure: 1:40 PM, March 23.
    • Sinking: 11:45 PM, March 23.
    • Time elapsed: 10.08 hours (605 minutes).
    • Speed = 160.5 ÷ 10.08 ≈ 15.9 knots.
      This aligns with your 16-knot average and fits Yongala’s capability (16-17 knots max, per Mr. Wareham). With a gale astern, this is feasible, especially if Captain Knight was indeed fleeing a storm.
  2. Mackay to Dent Island (55 nautical miles)
    • Departure: 1:40 PM.
    • Sighting options: 5:00 PM, 6:00 PM, or 6:35 PM.
      • 5:00 PM: 3.33 hours → 55 ÷ 3.33 ≈ 16.5 knots.
      • 6:00 PM: 4.33 hours → 55 ÷ 4.33 ≈ 12.7 knots.
      • 6:35 PM: 4.92 hours → 55 ÷ 4.92 ≈ 11.2 knots.
        You argue 16.5 knots (5:00 PM) fits best, reflecting urgency and matching the 16-knot average. The slower speeds (11.2-12.7 knots) align with “easy steam” but seem inconsistent with a captain aware of an approaching cyclone (falling barometer noted).
  3. Dent Island to Wreck Site (105.5 nautical miles, inner passage)
    • Sinking: 11:45 PM.
      • 5:00 PM: 6.75 hours → 105.5 ÷ 6.75 ≈ 15.6 knots.
      • 6:00 PM: 5.75 hours → 105.5 ÷ 5.75 ≈ 18.3 knots.
      • 6:35 PM: 5.17 hours → 105.5 ÷ 5.17 ≈ 20.4 knots.
        You favor 15.6 knots (5:00 PM), as 18.3 knots stretches Yongala’s limits, and 20.4 knots is impossible without extreme currents. A 2-knot southerly current (per Captain Craig) could boost 13-14 knots steaming speed to ~15.6-16 knots, making this plausible.
Conclusion: The 5:00 PM Dent Island sighting yields consistent speeds (16.5 knots to Dent, 15.6 knots to wreck) near Yongala’s maximum, supporting your hypothesis of a captain pushing hard. Later times (6:00 PM, 6:35 PM) strain credibility, requiring unsustainable speeds or contradicting “easy steam” earlier.

Cannon Valley Sighting and Route Choice
You propose Yongala took the inner passage (via Grassy Island, Armit, and Gumbrell Islands) and was visible from Cannon Valley around 6:00 PM, at dusk (sunset ~6:00 PM, March 23, Queensland). At 16 knots from Dent Island (5:00 PM), she’d be ~16 nautical miles past Dent by 6:00 PM—close enough to be seen from shore, especially if illuminated or silhouetted against the darkening sky. Residents’ reports of “darkness setting in” and a “stormy night” align with this timing and the cyclone’s approach.
The inner passage is narrower and riskier, especially at night without lighthouses (e.g., between Armit and Gumbrell). If Captain Knight chose this route to shortcut to Townsville, it could explain a sudden catastrophe—hitting a reef or being overwhelmed by storm-driven waves in confined waters. The chronometer’s abrupt stop supports a rapid sinking, consistent with such an event.

Discrepancies and Cover-Up Claim
You suggest the Inquiry inflated Dent Island sighting times (6:00 PM or 6:35 PM) to push Yongala onto the safer outer passage, discrediting Cannon Valley witnesses and avoiding blame for risk-taking. Possible motives include protecting the Adelaide Steamship Company’s reputation or deflecting scrutiny of navigation practices. The variance in reported times (5:00 PM, 6:00 PM, 6:35 PM) is indeed odd—press inconsistencies could reflect confusion, but deliberate alteration is harder to prove without direct evidence (e.g., tampered logs).
The Inquiry’s timeline (6:35 PM at Dent) implies implausible speeds (20.4 knots) or a slower pace earlier, contradicting Yongala’s urgency and capability. Your 5:00 PM scenario resolves this, but hinges on accepting the earliest sighting as correct and later ones as erroneous or fabricated.

Weaknesses and Questions
  1. Chronometer Accuracy: Was it precisely set to Greenwich Mean Time, or could crew adjustments skew the 10-hour offset? A small error could shift the sinking time slightly.
  2. Current Variability: Captain Craig’s 2-3 knot currents are anecdotal. Exact conditions on March 23 are uncertain—stronger or weaker currents could alter speed calculations.
  3. Cannon Valley Distance: How far offshore was Yongala? Visibility at dusk, 16+ miles out, might require ideal conditions or lights, which you don’t specify.
  4. Cooma’s Overtaking: If Yongala was “well in hand” near Lady Elliot Island, why accelerate later? Did the storm’s severity escalate post-Cooma sighting, prompting the shift from “easy steam” to full speed?
  5. Cover-Up Evidence: Beyond timeline discrepancies, what supports the Inquiry’s intent to mislead? Company pressure or witness suppression would strengthen this.

Does It Hold Up?
Yes, mostly. Your analysis is internally consistent: the chronometer, 5:00 PM Dent sighting, 16-knot average, and Cannon Valley account align to suggest Yongala took the inner passage and sank catastrophically at 11:45 PM. The math checks out with a 2-knot current, and Yongala’s capabilities support it. The Inquiry’s timeline (6:35 PM) strains credibility, lending weight to your skepticism.
However, it’s not airtight. The cover-up claim needs more than timeline mismatches—direct evidence of manipulation would seal it. The 5:00 PM sighting, while plausible, competes with 6:00 PM reports; without original logs or signals, it’s a judgment call. Still, your scenario is compelling and better explains the physical evidence (chronometer) and witness accounts than the official narrative.
If you’ve got more data (e.g., Inquiry transcripts, barometer readings, or wreck damage patterns), it could solidify this further. As is, it’s a strong alternative hypothesis that challenges the “whitewash” effectively.




courtesy Google Earth



courtesy Google Earth




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