THERE WAS NO OFFICIAL CYCLONE PREDICTION OR WARNING !!

The Brisbane Courier, Friday 4 February, 1898.

SPECIAL ADVICE.

Special advice, 3 p.m. .- The tropical 

disturbance named "Eline" is now central 200

miles east from Bowen, and has developed

dangerous energy. Shipping and all interested 

are advised. Coast districts a hundred miles 

inland between Rockhampton and Townsville 

will experience the western edge of " Eline." 

Vessels bound South from Townsville had better 

remain in Cleveland Bay, and those bound North

from Keppel Bay should also remain at anchor. 

The storm will probably recurve, and make 

southing.

In 1898 the Meteorological Bureau was able to predict a cyclone 200 miles east of the mainland! If this cyclone moved at the maximum speed of 30 miles per hour (see previous post) it would have taken it almost 7 hours to make the coast. This warning issued gave shipping along the Queensland coast plenty of time to seek anchorage or stay put in port. Why 13 years later was there a deficiency in the speed of the warning issued regarding the Yongala cyclone ?? Or was a warning even issued - until it was too late ?? 

LAST NIGHT'S SPECIAL- ADVICE.

Capemba, 11 p.m.

8 hours later !!

We have received special data from our

coast stations, to-night. A discussion of

these shows that the centre of the storm

"Eline" at 9 p.m. was about eighty miles

east from Bowen, where the standard

barometer at that hour, fully reduced, read

29.280 in.. 

In fact, by 9 pm, 6 hours later, the Bureau was able to advise that the cyclone was still 80 miles offshore. This suggests that the cyclone was moving at about 20 miles per hour. The technology was astounding for the era !!

Now, as the simultaneous reading at 

Rockhampton was 29.760 in., it shows

that gradients are very steep between Cape

Capricorn and Gloucester Island. Under

these circumstances, we again strongly 

repeat our warnings to shipping given in the

afternoon. No vessels that may be anchored 

in Keppel Bay, bound North, should proceed, 

and the same remark applies to those bound 

South that may be in Cleveland Bay. Highly 

dangerous seas are certain to obtain among 

the islands between the Keppel Group and 

Whitsunday Passage, with whole gales from 

east-south-east. High seas are reported from 

Bustard Head, but south from that point the 

weather has considerably moderated.--

(Signed) CLEMENT L. WRAGGE, 

Government Meteorologist.

This is a somewhat shocking expose. We know that data warning of a cyclone off Cape Upstart was already gathered by 9 am, 23 March, 1911. The cyclone struck at its worst by 11 pm, 14 hours later. In the above example the cyclone in question moving at 20 miles per hour would have made land by 1 am, the following day. The initial warning came at 3 pm, 10 hours earlier !! Extrapolating to the Yongala case, the warning should have been readily available to all shipping at Mackay and Townsville by the very latest, 1 pm, 23 March. Yongala departed Flat-Top at 1.40 pm and Grantala departed Townsville at 4 pm. Both these masters must have known about the cyclone warning and departed nonetheless !! 

But is this the full story ?? 

Read on...

The Brisbane Courier, Thursday 23 March, 1911.

OFFICIAL REPORT.

Divisional Meteorological Office, March 22.

Meteorological Notes.-The general distribution

of atmospheric pressure over and around 

Australia has undergone very little change since

yesterday morning, so that in its principal features 

to-day's chart is very similar to yesterday's. The 

great anticyclone still covers the entire continent

except the Gulf country and Cape York Peninsula,

but its central area has moved a little to the rearward, 

and an extension has been thrown forward, which 

has caused barometers to rise rather sharply in a 

north-easterly direction, that is, through eastern 

Victoria and the coastal region as far north as the

tropic, the resulting strong and squally S. to S.E. 

winds and showery conditions along the New 

South Wales coast on the rear of the retreating Antarctic 

depression, and similar effects on the Queensland 

coast south from Broadsound, on the south-western 

edge of the tropical disturbance. This latter does not 

appear to be travelling towards the seaboard, but is 

probably either stationary over the ocean between 

Queensland and New Caledonia, or moving on a 

south-easterly course at some distance from our 

coast line. According to this afternoon's reports the 

weather is still gloomy and unsettled, with rain 

threatening or falling, along the entire coast line, 

but the wind nowhere exceeds the velocity of a 

moderate breeze from between S.E. and E. The 

monsoonal tongue of low pressure still exists 

between Port Darwin, Burketown, and Torres Straits, 

but there are indications that it is developing energy, 

and scattered thunderstorms are not unlikely under

its influence on the Peninsula and around the Gulf 

during the next few days.

The following rainfalls were registered in

Queensland during the 24 hours ended 9 am.

to-day:

CENTRAL DIVISION.

Coastal - Central

Cape Capricorn 8            Aramac 28

Emu Park 43               Barcaldine 26

Port Alma 18               Lochnagar 27

Proserpine 6               Muttaburra 5

St. lawrence 7                Tangorin 40

The maximum temperature in Brisbane to-day

was 73.2 deg.

Forecast for Queensland for the 24 hours ending

noon on Thursday:- Cloudy along the eastern sea

board and thundery in Carpentaria, and on Peninsula, 

with further showers, chiefly north from the tropic; 

fine inland, but temperature moderate; S.E. winds, 

fresh on parts of the tropical coast.

Ocean forecasts and remarks on storms:- Some

fresh winds along the North Queensland coast.

The Mercury, Friday, 24 March, 1911.

Queensland - Cloudy with further rains

along the seaboard, unsettled on the 

peninsular with probability of stormy 

weather and heavy falls, fine inland 

with warmer temperatures,  SE winds.

Ocean forecasts and remarks on storms:

Squally off the SW coast of West Australia

Fresh south winds on the N coast of N. S.

Wales and on girths of Queensland coast with

rather rough seas. Indication of tropical

storm developing over the Queensland 

peninsular.

The Argus, Melbourne, 24 March, 1911.

THE WEATHER

OFFICIAL FORECAST

Forecast by the Commonwealth Meteorologist

Mr. H. A. Hunt, Thursday 9 pm. (23 March)

"Fine throughout, some cloud in southern districts

and one or two misty showers along the coast. 

Variable winds tending east and northeast."

Queensland: cloudy with further rains along

seaboard: unsettled along Peninsular, with 

probability of stormy weather with heavy falls.

Fine inland, with moderate temperatures;

southeasterly winds.

And there you have it !! By as late as 9 pm, 23 March, Mr. Hunt of the Commonwealth Meteorological Bureau had issued no cyclone warning for the Queensland coast. 

At last we can fully understand why Captains Knight and Sim departed their respective ports into what turned out to be a cyclone striking the Queensland coast between Townsville and Mackay. No wonder Captain Knight thought he was outrunning a stormy frontal system and only discovered, when it was too late, that he was steaming into the heart of a hybrid cyclone. By this time when conditions had deteriorated dramatically, 11 pm, 23 March, there was nothing Captain Knight could have done, caught in no man's land, to avert the disaster fated for the Yongala and her souls.

Mr. Hunt messed up !! 

It must be noted that although there was no official cyclone warning, Bowen via Cape Bowling Green Lighthouse, issued a cyclone warning late 23 March (+/- 5 p.m.) which was sent to Brisbane and from there back to Flat Top and Townsville, too late for either Yongala or Grantala. If there had been communications linking Dent Island Lighthouse with the mainland, there might still have been a narrow window of opportunity to issue a warning to Yongala, by flag signals, as she passed at 5 p.m. - visibility reasonable.

None of this was explored at the Inquiry which potentially would have led back to an element of culpability on the part of the Queensland authorities.

This deficiency was neatly summed up in 1933:

Morning Bulletin, 10 February, 1933

On the same day, a small rotary

storm of great intensity was operating

about 130 miles north from Willis Is-

land. There was then no meteorological

station on Willis Island, so that no-

body knew of the storm's existence, and

even had its presence been suspected,

few people would have connected this

small, virulent body upwards of 1000

miles away with the proud steamer

which passed rapidly out of the Brisbane 

River to the open sea and sped 

northwards with her living freight.

On the 22nd at noon the Yongala

was not far from North Reef lighthouse.

A ship at sea really was more of a

colony in those days before wireless,

than now the ether carries its messages

of shore doings with incredible speed

and unswerving fidelity. The company

on board soon settled down to the en-

forced isolation from the kind, and

looked forward to the next port when

contact with world doings would be re-

established. 

By this time, the cyclone had moved 

on a south-south-west course, and was 

about 50 miles west south-west from Willis 

Island. These two strangely unlike bodies 

had moved much closer together in the last 

24 hours. Their paths were converging, and 

for a large ship and 120 souls the sands of 

life were running low.

120 SOULS ON BOARD.

On the morning of the 23rd the Yongala 

steamed into Flat Top, the anchorage at 

Mackay, where she landed 60 tons of cargo 

and some passengers. Whatever was the 

changing of personnel at Mackay, when the 

Yongala steamed away on her last journey at

1.40 p.m., she had on board 120 souls

made up of crew 72, 1st class passengers

29, and 2nd class passengers 19. About

two hours after she sailed the Meteorological 

Department at Melbourne advised coastal 

towns that cyclonic conditions prevailed 

between Mackay and Townsville. That 

warning was issued on data which were 

collected at 9 that morning and telegraphed 

to Melbourne.

The reason for this seems to have been

that Melbourne was the seat of the

Federal Government-that is to say, no

other reason worth considering has been

propounded. Whatever the reasons, the

facts were that the 9 a.m. readings

that day showed the existence of a

dangerous storm moving down on to the

coast, and a valuable ship and 120 lives

steamed to their doom, nearly five

hours after those observations were

taken without any warning reaching

them. Bureaucratic pundits in Mel-

bourne knew, but the master of a ship

on the Queensland coast with 120 lives

in his charge knew nothing of the menace 

ahead.


courtesy Trove