THERE WAS NO OFFICIAL CYCLONE PREDICTION OR WARNING !!

The Brisbane Courier, Friday 4 February, 1898.

SPECIAL ADVICE.

Special advice, 3 p.m. .- The tropical 

disturbance named "Eline" is now central 200

miles east from Bowen, and has developed

dangerous energy. Shipping and all interested 

are advised. Coast districts a hundred miles 

inland between Rockhampton and Townsville 

will experience the western edge of " Eline." 

Vessels bound South from Townsville had better 

remain in Cleveland Bay, and those bound North

from Keppel Bay should also remain at anchor. 

The storm will probably recurve, and make 

southing.

In 1898 the Meteorological Bureau was able to predict a cyclone 200 miles east of the mainland! If this cyclone moved at the maximum speed of 30 miles per hour (see previous post) it would have taken it almost 7 hours to make the coast. This warning issued gave shipping along the Queensland coast plenty of time to seek anchorage or stay put in port. Why 13 years later was there a deficiency in the speed of the warning issued regarding the Yongala cyclone ?? Or was a warning even issued - until it was too late ?? 

LAST NIGHT'S SPECIAL- ADVICE.

Capemba, 11 p.m.

8 hours later !!

We have received special data from our

coast stations, to-night. A discussion of

these shows that the centre of the storm

"Eline" at 9 p.m. was about eighty miles

east from Bowen, where the standard

barometer at that hour, fully reduced, read

29.280 in.. 

In fact, by 9 pm, 6 hours later, the Bureau was able to advise that the cyclone was still 80 miles offshore. This suggests that the cyclone was moving at about 20 miles per hour. The technology was astounding for the era !!

Now, as the simultaneous reading at 

Rockhampton was 29.760 in., it shows

that gradients are very steep between Cape

Capricorn and Gloucester Island. Under

these circumstances, we again strongly 

repeat our warnings to shipping given in the

afternoon. No vessels that may be anchored 

in Keppel Bay, bound North, should proceed, 

and the same remark applies to those bound 

South that may be in Cleveland Bay. Highly 

dangerous seas are certain to obtain among 

the islands between the Keppel Group and 

Whitsunday Passage, with whole gales from 

east-south-east. High seas are reported from 

Bustard Head, but south from that point the 

weather has considerably moderated.--

(Signed) CLEMENT L. WRAGGE, 

Government Meteorologist.

This is a somewhat shocking expose. We know that data warning of a cyclone off Cape Upstart was already gathered by 9 am, 23 March, 1911. The cyclone struck at its worst by 11 pm, 14 hours later. In the above example the cyclone in question moving at 20 miles per hour would have made land by 1 am, the following day. The initial warning came at 3 pm, 10 hours earlier !! Extrapolating to the Yongala case, the warning should have been readily available to all shipping at Mackay and Townsville by the very latest, 1 pm, 23 March. Yongala departed Flat-Top at 1.40 pm and Grantala departed Townsville at 4 pm. Both these masters must have known about the cyclone warning and departed nonetheless !! 

But is this the full story ?? 

Read on...

The Brisbane Courier, Thursday 23 March, 1911.

OFFICIAL REPORT.

Divisional Meteorological Office, March 22.

Meteorological Notes.-The general distribution

of atmospheric pressure over and around 

Australia has undergone very little change since

yesterday morning, so that in its principal features 

to-day's chart is very similar to yesterday's. The 

great anticyclone still covers the entire continent

except the Gulf country and Cape York Peninsula,

but its central area has moved a little to the rearward, 

and an extension has been thrown forward, which 

has caused barometers to rise rather sharply in a 

north-easterly direction, that is, through eastern 

Victoria and the coastal region as far north as the

tropic, the resulting strong and squally S. to S.E. 

winds and showery conditions along the New 

South Wales coast on the rear of the retreating Antarctic 

depression, and similar effects on the Queensland 

coast south from Broadsound, on the south-western 

edge of the tropical disturbance. This latter does not 

appear to be travelling towards the seaboard, but is 

probably either stationary over the ocean between 

Queensland and New Caledonia, or moving on a 

south-easterly course at some distance from our 

coast line. According to this afternoon's reports the 

weather is still gloomy and unsettled, with rain 

threatening or falling, along the entire coast line, 

but the wind nowhere exceeds the velocity of a 

moderate breeze from between S.E. and E. The 

monsoonal tongue of low pressure still exists 

between Port Darwin, Burketown, and Torres Straits, 

but there are indications that it is developing energy, 

and scattered thunderstorms are not unlikely under

its influence on the Peninsula and around the Gulf 

during the next few days.

The following rainfalls were registered in

Queensland during the 24 hours ended 9 am.

to-day:

CENTRAL DIVISION.

Coastal - Central

Cape Capricorn 8            Aramac 28

Emu Park 43               Barcaldine 26

Port Alma 18               Lochnagar 27

Proserpine 6               Muttaburra 5

St. lawrence 7                Tangorin 40

The maximum temperature in Brisbane to-day

was 73.2 deg.

Forecast for Queensland for the 24 hours ending

noon on Thursday:- Cloudy along the eastern sea

board and thundery in Carpentaria, and on Peninsula, 

with further showers, chiefly north from the tropic; 

fine inland, but temperature moderate; S.E. winds, 

fresh on parts of the tropical coast.

Ocean forecasts and remarks on storms:- Some

fresh winds along the North Queensland coast.

The Mercury, Friday, 24 March, 1911.

Queensland - Cloudy with further rains

along the seaboard, unsettled on the 

peninsular with probability of stormy 

weather and heavy falls, fine inland 

with warmer temperatures,  SE winds.

Ocean forecasts and remarks on storms:

Squally off the SW coast of West Australia

Fresh south winds on the N coast of N. S.

Wales and on girths of Queensland coast with

rather rough seas. Indication of tropical

storm developing over the Queensland 

peninsular.

The Argus, Melbourne, 24 March, 1911.

THE WEATHER

OFFICIAL FORECAST

Forecast by the Commonwealth Meteorologist

Mr. H. A. Hunt, Thursday 9 pm. (23 March)

"Fine throughout, some cloud in southern districts

and one or two misty showers along the coast. 

Variable winds tending east and northeast."

Queensland: cloudy with further rains along

seaboard: unsettled along Peninsular, with 

probability of stormy weather with heavy falls.

Fine inland, with moderate temperatures;

southeasterly winds.

And there you have it !! By as late as 9 pm, 23 March, Mr. Hunt of the Commonwealth Meteorological Bureau had issued no cyclone warning for the Queensland coast. 

At last we can fully understand why Captains Knight and Sim departed their respective ports into what turned out to be a cyclone striking the Queensland coast between Townsville and Mackay. No wonder Captain Knight thought he was outrunning a stormy frontal system and only discovered, when it was too late, that he was steaming into the heart of a hybrid cyclone. By this time when conditions had deteriorated dramatically, 11 pm, 23 March, there was nothing Captain Knight could have done, caught in no man's land, to avert the disaster fated for the Yongala and her souls.

Mr. Hunt messed up !! 

It must be noted that although there was no official cyclone warning, Bowen via Cape Bowling Green Lighthouse, issued a cyclone warning late 23 March (+/- 5 p.m.) which was sent to Brisbane and from there back to Flat Top and Townsville, too late for either Yongala or Grantala. If there had been communications linking Dent Island Lighthouse with the mainland, there might still have been a narrow window of opportunity to issue a warning to Yongala, by flag signals, as she passed at 5 p.m. - visibility reasonable.

None of this was explored at the Inquiry which potentially would have led back to an element of culpability on the part of the Queensland authorities.

This deficiency was neatly summed up in 1933:

Morning Bulletin, 10 February, 1933

On the same day, a small rotary

storm of great intensity was operating

about 130 miles north from Willis Is-

land. There was then no meteorological

station on Willis Island, so that no-

body knew of the storm's existence, and

even had its presence been suspected,

few people would have connected this

small, virulent body upwards of 1000

miles away with the proud steamer

which passed rapidly out of the Brisbane 

River to the open sea and sped 

northwards with her living freight.

On the 22nd at noon the Yongala

was not far from North Reef lighthouse.

A ship at sea really was more of a

colony in those days before wireless,

than now the ether carries its messages

of shore doings with incredible speed

and unswerving fidelity. The company

on board soon settled down to the en-

forced isolation from the kind, and

looked forward to the next port when

contact with world doings would be re-

established. 

By this time, the cyclone had moved 

on a south-south-west course, and was 

about 50 miles west south-west from Willis 

Island. These two strangely unlike bodies 

had moved much closer together in the last 

24 hours. Their paths were converging, and 

for a large ship and 120 souls the sands of 

life were running low.

120 SOULS ON BOARD.

On the morning of the 23rd the Yongala 

steamed into Flat Top, the anchorage at 

Mackay, where she landed 60 tons of cargo 

and some passengers. Whatever was the 

changing of personnel at Mackay, when the 

Yongala steamed away on her last journey at

1.40 p.m., she had on board 120 souls

made up of crew 72, 1st class passengers

29, and 2nd class passengers 19. About

two hours after she sailed the Meteorological 

Department at Melbourne advised coastal 

towns that cyclonic conditions prevailed 

between Mackay and Townsville. That 

warning was issued on data which were 

collected at 9 that morning and telegraphed 

to Melbourne.

The reason for this seems to have been

that Melbourne was the seat of the

Federal Government-that is to say, no

other reason worth considering has been

propounded. Whatever the reasons, the

facts were that the 9 a.m. readings

that day showed the existence of a

dangerous storm moving down on to the

coast, and a valuable ship and 120 lives

steamed to their doom, nearly five

hours after those observations were

taken without any warning reaching

them. Bureaucratic pundits in Mel-

bourne knew, but the master of a ship

on the Queensland coast with 120 lives

in his charge knew nothing of the menace 

ahead.


courtesy Trove

SCIENCE vs CYCLONES.

The mercury, Hobart, Saturday 16 May, 1931.

SCIENCE v. CYCLONES

Hurricanes No Longer

Dreaded

Experience of S.S. Macumba

Given sea room, the modern steamer is

not imperilled by the fiercest hurricane

which can strike the Queensland coast,

but a recent experience of the A.U.S.N.

Co.'s s.s. Macumba proves that science

has provided a comparatively easy means

of avoiding or nullifying even the most

intractable cyclone. Illustrating the

fact, Captain H. P. Upward takes readers

back to January 29 of this year.

Three factors figure in the Macumba's

feat of actually tracking a cyclone down

the Queensland coast - knowledge of the

law of storms, wireless, and the broad-

casting of advance reports from Willis

Island, 207 miles north-east from Townsville.

Captain Knight did not have the advantage of wireless and a timeous cyclone warning.

Captain Upward says that most of the

hurricanes which affect the Queensland

coast occur in January, February, and

March. They generally come from the

east, and approach the coast between

Townsville and Cooktown. Mostly they

recurve south-easterly, pass southwards,

frequently as far as Brisbane, then move

off E.S.E., increase in area, and disperse.

This would certainly explain why the SS Geelong was subjected to three days of stormy conditions, following roughly the path from Townsville down the coast to Carlisle Island.

Others recurve some distance from the

coast, near the Barrier Reef, passing

southward and eastward, without causing 

much damage. These fierce storms are one 

of Nature's rough blessings.

They bring heavy rain and prevent

droughts, more especially those which

cross Cape York and get away inland.

In order to make clear the Macumba's

successful strategy, it may be explained

that the tropical cyclone consists of an

atmospheric whirl, rotating clock-wise

in the Southern Hemisphere, with spirally

inflowing winds attaining destructive

velocities, ranging from 60 miles an hour 

to, in extreme cases, 120 miles, (Captain Sim 

reported that the winds were between 70 and 

80 miles per hour) while moving along this line 

or progression at a velocity of five to 30 miles

an hour. They were once supposed to be

perfectly round, but are now known to

resemble the shape of the earth - even

elliptical.

The 'cyclone' coming from the northeast, from the direction of Willis Island, would have taken approximately 1 to 6 hours to moved across the stretch of sea between the Barrier Reef and Cape Bowling Green - Cape Upstart. Captain Sim, anchored in Bowling Green Bay, reported that the worst of the gale was between 11 pm, 23 March and 3 am, 24 March - 4 hours. 

DESTRUCTIVE SECTION.

The destructive section of a cyclone

is frequently less than 100 miles wide.

If a ship is in the centre of the storm,

facing with it, there will be a semi-circle 

to right and left, of which the left semi-circle 

is the most dangerous. 

Knowledge of this simple fact enables a 

captain who is being overtaken by a cyclone 

to take his vessel into the right or less dangerous 

semi-circle. 

The Yongala wreck site is within the steamer track between the Whitsundays and Townsville. This suggests that Captain Knight was aware of the dangers associated with altering course closer to the mainland in order to seek shelter. He was also caught between a rock and a hard place, because altering course to approximate the right semi-circle (left-hand), would have taken Yongala too close to the Barrier Reef. He had no choice but to continue within the track on course for Townsville.

According to Captain Upward, a skipper has 

three ways of knowing that a cyclone is

coming his way: the barometer, a wireless 

warning, and the ship's cat. The last of the trio 

is said to be remarkably quick in its reactions 

to impending weather changes.

While the A.U.S.N. steamer was approaching 
Mackay on her last voyage north, very suspicious 
weather began, heavy rain squalls from the east, 
with a slightly falling barometer. On February 1, 
when the Macumba reached Townsville, there were 
strong indications of a cyclone to the north, on the
York Peninsula. The warning signal was hoisted at 
the harbour office, and a message was received that 
a hurricane had crossed the Peninsula from the
west, gone out to sea between Cooktown and Cardwell, 
and ran slowly moving eastward toward Willis Island.

The s.s. Morinda, bound for Townsville, was sheltering 

under Gloucester Head from heavy easterly gales. Wireless 

had enabled her to locate the centre of the cyclone,

and the rate of progression, and, wisely to take precautions.

Willis Island wireless gave technical particulars on February 2, 

which showed that the Morinda and Macumba were on the 

right semi-circle of the line of progression, and that the former's 

best plan was to run north, while the Macumba steamer cautiously 

southward in the wake of the disturbance.

How very interesting. The Morinda could represent the Yongala, running north, and the Macumba, representing the Grantala, proceeding cautiously southward and then taking shelter at Cape Bowling Green. This rationale would certainly explain Captain Knight's decision to 'run north'.

"We sailed at 4 p.m., keeping to a certain 

course," says Captain Upward, "and at 10 p.m.

passed the Morinda, bound north. The weather 

was clear, but a nasty easterly sea was making

both vessels roll heavily. At noon on February 3 

we were well down among the Whitsunday Islands, 

with the cyclone still showing signs of converging 

with our course. If the tendency continued, it was 

evident that we should have to ease up before reaching 

a position at which we would come together.

This part of the coast is the most picturesque 

in Australian waters, owing to its miles and miles 

of island chains, which practically form inland seas.

What a grand tourist resort it would make ! On this 

special occasion, however, I was glad to be getting 

through with moderately clear weather, and was

not thinking of tourist possibilities. On February 4 

a course was shaped inside the Percy Islands. 

The barometer began to fall rapidly, and the ship 

was swept by thick blinding rain squalls of hurricane 

force. Owing to the indraft of the islands, it was very 

difficult to get a true direction of the wind, but it was 

obvious that we were getting too close on the heels 

of the cyclone, especially as the flood tide - a king one 

at that - would cause the storm to incline in our 

direction. I decided to anchor and stand by till daylight! 

It was some satisfaction later to know that other ships, 

ahead and more to the eastward of our position reported

by wireless that they were having a bad time, one captain 

stating that he had passed through the centre of the cyclone.

The barometer fell rapidly and blinding squalls predominated with difficulty establishing the true direction of wind. Such confusing horror. It is interesting to note that despite adequate wireless communication and warning, ships found themselves in the brunt of the cyclone and at least one in the centre. 

  

I was glad that I had not proceeded

until the storm had passed. At 5 a.m.,

the barometer started to rise slowly and

the weather to improve all round. The

wind got more westing in it, and the

cyclone ahead of us gradually curved 

out to sea and was finally reported to

be 100 miles east of Capricorn, moving

E.S.E., expanding and losing force.

Having remained at anchor 14 hours,

the vessel proceeded, and, except for

the expected rough seas, reached port

without trouble. Following as we were,

on the heels of a cyclone, it is necessary

to keep as much westerly as possible in

your wind and to watch your barometer

closely.

Advice to watch the barometer was perhaps the most important take-home message. 

It is interesting to note, in connection

with the barometer, that from 4 to 10,

a.m. and pm; the barometer usually

rises, while from 10 to 4 a.m. and p.m. 

it falls. This is called the diurnal range,

and is most pronounced in the Tropics,

amounting to about one-tenth of an

inch. The movement becomes very

irregular when a storm is impending,

and that is the time to keep a sharp

lookout and heed any wireless warnings.

Sensible guideline (so similar to that relating to the Koombana disaster - see Koombana Revisited). 

Incidentally, according lo Captain Upward, 

the ship's cat becomes as jumpy as the 

aneroid barometer!

Did Yongala have a 'ship's cat' ??

Morning Bulletin, 2 July, 1947.

SEA STREWN WITH WRECKAGE

Captain Rhodes says that the

current belief that no trace of the

Yongala was ever found is wrong,

as the sea between Cape Bowling

Green and Palm Islands was littered 

with wreckage, much of it being 

kerosene in the square tins of the 

day. 

He said that the cyclone was small, 

but of great intensity, the barometric 

gradients being so steep that there 

was a difference of an inch in the 

readings at Cape Bowling Green 

and at Townsville pilot station. The

path cut by the storm through the 

timber at the head up Upstart Bay, 

in which great trees twisted and 

shattered, was most impressive.

What Butler saw suggested that

the tornado swept through the 

Inkerman area on a 30 mile front to

the sea, crossing the coast between

Cape Upstart and Cape Bowling

green. On the northern side of Cape

Upstart there had been a large

landslide and trees uprooted, but

cut off clean about eight feet from

the ground.